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Here are twelve of them:

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A similar program in BASIC:

```
x=1
y=2
d=1
ppd=0
WHILE d<13
ppd=ppd+x
x=x+y
y=y+1
d=d+1
WEND
PRINT ppd
```

And...welcome to the forum!

]]>Post 4567

]]>Further - you have no way of knowing how many iterations the average person will make. But you could assume that the probability of x iterations decreases as x increases.

So the 1st iteration is that everyone would pick 300 as it is bigger.

The 2nd iteration is that 200 is a better bet if 6 or more people pick 300.

The 3rd iteration is that 300 is a better bet if 5 people get to iteration 2.

Etc etc.

The extra size of the kitty for voting 300 makes it the better choice in a large enough sample I think

]]>thickhead wrote:

]]>salem_ohio wrote:My approach - but not sure if it is correct...

We must discern the following 4 cases for A and B:

1) They make the same forecast and both are right: Probability P = 4/5*8/9 = 32/45

2) Same forecast and both are wrong: - P = 1/5*1/9 = 1/45

3) Different forecasts and A is right: P = 4/5*1/9 = 4/45

4) Different forecasts and B is right: P = 1/5*8/9 = 8/45In our case, we have A and B give different forecasts. In such cases, A is right with overall probability 4/45, while B is right with overall probability 8/45, that is double (that is, A: 1/3 while B: 2/3).

We are asking for the probability that it rains tomorrow, that is, the probability that B is right. I would therefore say that this is 2/3.

What do you think?You are telling same thing as Relentless but have put the value wrong.

3) must be 4/5*1/10 and

4) 1/5 *9/10

Both correct!

My HP 32SII (below), working 'perfectly well' again! I must've walked off with it, and the refund! I'll have to 'pay' the shop a visit...

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