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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 81,749

Hi gAr;

Yes, it did but the trouble was with the denominator I chose. anonimnystefy used bayes theorem to choose the right one.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.**

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**gAr****Member**- Registered: 2011-01-09
- Posts: 3,462

Hi,

The simulations match closely with the answers for (ii) and (iii), so I believe they are right.

"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense" - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 81,749

Hi;

That is what I am getting too.

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.**

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**gAr****Member**- Registered: 2011-01-09
- Posts: 3,462

Hi bobbym,

Thanks for confirming.

"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense" - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 81,749

I am having trouble getting the exact answer though. How did you get it?

**In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.**

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**gAr****Member**- Registered: 2011-01-09
- Posts: 3,462

Hi,

I derived the probabilities for (iii) from the matrix

st 1 2 3 end1 end23

st 0 0.7000000 0.2000000 0.1000000 0.0000000 0.0000000

1 0 0.0000000 0.5000000 0.0000000 0.5000000 0.0000000

2 0 0.3333333 0.0000000 0.3333333 0.3333333 0.0000000

3 0 0.0000000 0.3333333 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.6666667

end1 0 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.0000000 0.0000000

end23 0 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.0000000

and used bayes' rule

1_s means starts at first room, 1_e means exits from first room

You need to slightly change the matrix for P(1_e|1_s) by changing .7 to 1 and rest in that row to zeroes.

"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense" - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 81,749

Hi gAr;

Thanks for providing that!

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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**gAr****Member**- Registered: 2011-01-09
- Posts: 3,462

You're welcome!

Found a pdf which solved for the expected number of steps for the rat to exit from the maze : http://www.columbia.edu/~ks20/stochasti … -I-MCI.pdf

*Last edited by gAr (2013-04-04 21:51:40)*

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 81,749

Hi gAr;

Thanks for the pdf.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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May I post another problem of Bayes' theorem?

'And fun? If maths is fun, then getting a tooth extraction is fun. A viral infection is fun. Rabies shots are fun.'

'God exists because Mathematics is consistent, and the devil exists because we cannot prove it'

'Humanity is still kept intact. It remains within.' -Alokananda

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**bobbym****Administrator**- From: Bumpkinland
- Registered: 2009-04-12
- Posts: 81,749

Might be better to post it in a new thread.

I have the result, but I do not yet know how to get it.

All physicists, and a good many quite respectable mathematicians are contemptuous about proof.

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