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#1 2007-06-21 07:18:55

Identity
Member
Registered: 2007-04-18
Posts: 934

Global Warming scenarios

Global Warming? Will it happen? What are we going to do about it?

This guy breaks down the argument very simply by analysing a grid of scenarios, and his own argument is quite strong.

http://www.break.com/index/tough-to-argue.html

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#2 2007-06-21 10:29:02

MathsIsFun
Administrator
Registered: 2005-01-21
Posts: 7,685

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Got halfway through, he decided we should take action?


"The physicists defer only to mathematicians, and the mathematicians defer only to God ..."  - Leon M. Lederman

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#3 2007-06-21 10:35:25

mathsyperson
Moderator
Registered: 2005-06-22
Posts: 4,900

Re: Global Warming scenarios

I saw that video. The only flaw I could find in there was that he presumes that global warming is just as likely to happen as it is to not happen, when there is nothing to suggest that. He doesn't have a clue, so he makes a complete guess. If global warming is much less likely to happen, then it might be better to not take action against it. Otherwise though, it seems like a fairly good argument.


Why did the vector cross the road?
It wanted to be normal.

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#4 2007-06-22 04:37:19

Laterally Speaking
Real Member
Registered: 2007-05-21
Posts: 356

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Can you really prove that something is definitely going to happen? The causes are quite abundant, so it's probably far more likely to happen than it is to not.

As a matter of fact, might i ask why we're using the conditional future? It's happening right now! This year, we got about 1/10 of what we usually get, in terms of precipitations. The temperatures are higher than I remember them ever being. Still, SUV and 4x4 sales are rising every day, even though most of them are driven by people who only drive about 30 miles a day, alone, on perfectly paved roads...


"Knowledge is directly proportional to the amount of equipment ruined."
"This woman painted a picture of me; she was clearly a psychopath"

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#5 2007-06-29 05:51:27

amanda
Member
Registered: 2005-10-16
Posts: 14

Re: Global Warming scenarios

That global warming argument is a total scam!

Just replace the phrase "Global warming" with the words "My religion" and you will see what a scam this argument is.

OK, take a look:

So you have the four boxes with two smiley faces.

Then you have the box where you don't believe in "My religion" and you go to hell for eternity! You get burned and tortured for not believing for ever!.

Compare that with believing in "My religion" if "My religion" turns out to be untrue. Well you only have the expense of believing. What is so bad about that

So you see, you should believe in "My religion". What is the worst that can happen?

And yesterday I saw a talking chicken and the way home. The chicken was screaming "the sky is falling!, The sky is falling"

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#6 2007-06-29 16:20:03

tika
Member
Registered: 2007-06-20
Posts: 3

Re: Global Warming scenarios

angry Mandy

gabm-05.jpg

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#7 2007-06-29 16:22:34

Ricky
Moderator
Registered: 2005-12-04
Posts: 3,791

Re: Global Warming scenarios

That global warming argument is a total scam!

Just replace the phrase "Global warming" with the words "My religion" and you will see what a scam this argument is.

My religion is the cause behind the increase in temperatures we've seen over the past 100 years?  That doesn't make much sense.


"In the real world, this would be a problem.  But in mathematics, we can just define a place where this problem doesn't exist.  So we'll go ahead and do that now..."

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#8 2007-06-29 19:36:42

luca-deltodesco
Member
Registered: 2006-05-05
Posts: 1,470

Re: Global Warming scenarios

'laterally speaking' ok then, is global warming also the cause of flooding in england, and the unusually cold weather in the past few weeks?


The Beginning Of All Things To End.
The End Of All Things To Come.

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#9 2007-06-30 00:13:28

Laterally Speaking
Real Member
Registered: 2007-05-21
Posts: 356

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Well, yes.

You see, global warming can cause global cooling.

Last edited by Laterally Speaking (2007-07-01 04:07:05)


"Knowledge is directly proportional to the amount of equipment ruined."
"This woman painted a picture of me; she was clearly a psychopath"

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#10 2007-06-30 00:19:04

mathsyperson
Moderator
Registered: 2005-06-22
Posts: 4,900

Re: Global Warming scenarios

That doesn't necessarily mean that the temperature drops slightly below normal though, it just means that the reading does. The cause could be that the thermometer fluctuates a bit before resting at equilibrium.


Why did the vector cross the road?
It wanted to be normal.

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#11 2007-06-30 02:20:00

LQ
Real Member
Registered: 2006-12-04
Posts: 1,285

Re: Global Warming scenarios

How about the atmosphere gets a higher variation of density in atmosphere, cause by increased temperature. That would cause colder temperature occasionally. Like bathing in air.

Just like the moon causes waves, it could cause airwaves, and given that the air becomes hotter...

Last edited by LQ (2007-06-30 02:24:22)


I see clearly now, the universe have the black dots, Thus I am on my way of inventing this remedy...

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#12 2007-06-30 02:29:42

Ricky
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Registered: 2005-12-04
Posts: 3,791

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Laterally Speaking, no matter how your form that analogy, it is flawed.  Because no one has yet removed the increased heat.  If anything our thermometer is going up.  Instead, the increased heat throws the global weather patterns entirely out of wack, and you can have some places getting cold Arctic air (or cold air from anywhere else) that never got it before.


"In the real world, this would be a problem.  But in mathematics, we can just define a place where this problem doesn't exist.  So we'll go ahead and do that now..."

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#13 2007-06-30 03:28:22

LQ
Real Member
Registered: 2006-12-04
Posts: 1,285

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Ricky wrote:

Laterally Speaking, no matter how your form that analogy, it is flawed.  Because no one has yet removed the increased heat.  If anything our thermometer is going up.  Instead, the increased heat throws the global weather patterns entirely out of wack, and you can have some places getting cold Arctic air (or cold air from anywhere else) that never got it before.

Exactly. Now what to do about it...
We are not adapted to this, lol.


I see clearly now, the universe have the black dots, Thus I am on my way of inventing this remedy...

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#14 2007-06-30 04:11:42

luca-deltodesco
Member
Registered: 2006-05-05
Posts: 1,470

Re: Global Warming scenarios

our race survived an ice age before, and that was before we could even really talk properly, i think we can do just fine.

Last edited by luca-deltodesco (2007-06-30 04:12:01)


The Beginning Of All Things To End.
The End Of All Things To Come.

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#15 2007-06-30 06:12:48

LQ
Real Member
Registered: 2006-12-04
Posts: 1,285

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Even though we have thermonuclear weapons?


I see clearly now, the universe have the black dots, Thus I am on my way of inventing this remedy...

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#16 2007-06-30 06:14:59

Identity
Member
Registered: 2007-04-18
Posts: 934

Re: Global Warming scenarios

luca-deltodesco wrote:

our race survived an ice age before, and that was before we could even really talk properly, i think we can do just fine.

but in our age the threat comes not from nature, but from ourselves

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#17 2007-06-30 06:34:38

LQ
Real Member
Registered: 2006-12-04
Posts: 1,285

Re: Global Warming scenarios

A very strong BG bacteria would solve all our problems.
Given the vaporisation capabilities.

All we have to do is exchange its toxic genes to the most un resisteable poison ever in the exact amount of killing 2 BG algies whenever attacked.
And any attacking capabilities would be taken away.
Then very soon there would be no vaporisation technology on the earth.


I see clearly now, the universe have the black dots, Thus I am on my way of inventing this remedy...

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#18 2007-06-30 19:59:29

Laterally Speaking
Real Member
Registered: 2007-05-21
Posts: 356

Re: Global Warming scenarios

About my analogy: I wasn't really thinking straight, so it isn't (for the most part) true.

Wouldn't "the most un resisteable poison ever" kill humans, as well as just about all other life? The thing is, whatever we do to "prevent" what's happening is dangerous to something, therefore, to humans. Dumping poison, bacteria, iron dust... is not good for the health of the planet.

The last ice age was caused by the changing orbit of the planet. Every 100000 years, the orbit becomes far more elliptical, thus moving the planet away from the sun, causing a cooling. However, the current imbalance is due to humans putting vast quantities of greenhouse gases into the air, killing off thousands of species every year, and clearing large forests. The entire ecosystem is no longer a system, because we humans didn't care as much about the planet as our getting rich.


"Knowledge is directly proportional to the amount of equipment ruined."
"This woman painted a picture of me; she was clearly a psychopath"

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#19 2007-06-30 21:26:16

LQ
Real Member
Registered: 2006-12-04
Posts: 1,285

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Outstanding point, if it wasn't for that there are much worse things then becoming dust.
-You can also be vaporised into space expansion energy.

And you will experience it, beyondless parts makes no entity.
Since they are beyondless.
You are a beyondless part.

But given that we become bacterias, chances are slim that we become vaporised. I'd take my chances with becomming a bacteria, as long as I don't get vaporised.


I see clearly now, the universe have the black dots, Thus I am on my way of inventing this remedy...

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#20 2007-06-30 22:07:31

Identity
Member
Registered: 2007-04-18
Posts: 934

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Could it be the case that global warming is just an invention by the science authorities in order to get more funding?

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#21 2007-07-01 04:06:11

Ricky
Moderator
Registered: 2005-12-04
Posts: 3,791

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Identity wrote:

Could it be the case that global warming is just an invention by the science authorities in order to get more funding?

Scientist get prestige by showing that other scientists are wrong.


"In the real world, this would be a problem.  But in mathematics, we can just define a place where this problem doesn't exist.  So we'll go ahead and do that now..."

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#22 2007-07-01 04:16:16

Laterally Speaking
Real Member
Registered: 2007-05-21
Posts: 356

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Also when certain governments tell them to...

Here's a more sensible explanation as to why global warming can cause global cooling: If the temperatures rise, more water will evaporate. More clouds will form, so, after a while, there won't be any sunlight coming through at all, unless the air at high altitudes gets too hot for the water to condense, which would be very bad.

Also, here's why the ozone layer is disappearing: ozone, O3, is highly unstable at room temperature. It will turn into O2 quite violently if brought to room temp. However, at very low temperature, it is relatively stable. The heating of the air at high altitudes has caused the ozone there to turn to oxygen.


"Knowledge is directly proportional to the amount of equipment ruined."
"This woman painted a picture of me; she was clearly a psychopath"

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#23 2007-07-01 22:05:47

amanda
Member
Registered: 2005-10-16
Posts: 14

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Ricky wrote:

That global warming argument is a total scam!

Just replace the phrase "Global warming" with the words "My religion" and you will see what a scam this argument is.

My religion is the cause behind the increase in temperatures we've seen over the past 100 years?  That doesn't make much sense.

It's an analogy Ricky. It has nothing to do with religion.

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#24 2007-07-02 08:44:06

Laterally Speaking
Real Member
Registered: 2007-05-21
Posts: 356

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Just because you can apply the same thought process to something completely different doesn't make it a scam, does it?

Just as Ricky said, there is pretty irrefutable evidence that global warming is happening. The flies around here, which usually aren't born until late September, are already almost full-size. The plants around here started blooming in March, even at 2000 m above sea level, where I am. The birds have been here since late February. Something is seriously wrong with the climate here.


"Knowledge is directly proportional to the amount of equipment ruined."
"This woman painted a picture of me; she was clearly a psychopath"

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#25 2007-07-10 01:39:48

Patrick
Real Member
Registered: 2006-02-24
Posts: 1,005

Re: Global Warming scenarios

Hmm, you know. An apple is food and it can be cold. A car can also be cold, so watch this:

My "apple" is cold.
My "car" is cold.

Oh my... A car is essentially the same as an apple, I'd never have guessed - until I invented this illogical system for comparing two things!

Aaanyway, global warming. Is it happening? Well, temperatures seem to have been rising for some years, so the globe is warming == global warming. Did we cause it? Is it going to continue happening? Are we going to continue causing it?... I don't know.


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