All possible combination in probability

engdudu · 2011-08-15 13:23:10

Hello , I love studing gambling and its probabilities and combinations , now I´m intrigued by a problem that I can not solve please help me . The scenario is , there 25 numbers from 1 to 25 and 15 will be drawn , that results in 3.3 millions sets of combinations , how can I get all the possible sets on a spreadsheet ? I´m not sure if ms excel support this calculus , how can I solve this ? There is a reward for whom to help me . Thanks a lot

bobbym · 2011-08-15 13:35:23

Hi engdudu;

Welcome to the forum! Asking any program to list 3,268,760 combinations is big job. Many programs will either be too slow or will run out of memory. The trick of combinatorics is to solve problems without seeing the entire sample space. Also problems can solved through the use of simulations, again without seeing the entire sample space.

Perhaps if you will state your problem then it might be solved in a simple manner.

engdudu · 2011-08-15 17:20:55

Hi Bobby , you´re totally right , my idea is develop a simulator so I can funnel down the combinations to as many as 10.000 sets . Providing more details about the scenario , we can start off by collecting the combinations already drawn since the lottery started , there are exactly 661 sets so far ( I have typed them all in a excel spreadsheet ) . Now comes the first challenging , what criteria should we use to rule out big sets of little odds combinations ? Consecutive numbers are against the odds but how can I filter this combination if I don´t have all combinations available ? Are you into digdb macro to excel ? Maybe its complex filter would be able to do this .
Thanks a lot for your time .

bobbym · 2011-08-15 18:21:34

Hi engdudu;

Can you provide exact examples as to what you want to do? This way there are no misunderstandings.

Just offhand, instead of generating all arrangements and the pruning the number down. I would try to just generate the ones I need.

engdudu · 2011-08-16 01:52:28

Hi Bobby , let me explain the whole situation .

Back in my country , despite the traditional lottery 6/60 ( to hit 6 picks from 60 ) it was developed a new lottery 15/25 . There are a couple of draws per week , mondays and thursday and the prizes range from 1M-7Million , I´d say pretty good if you mind the odds , moreover you get little cash if you hit 11 ( US$ 1 ) , 12 ( 2,50 ) 13 (87,50 ) 14 ( 1.500 ) and 15 ( 1-7 Millions ) depending on how many bets were made . So far , 661 draws were made and I have typed them all in a spreadsheet so we can analize the combinations to predict a scenario of odds to the next ones , here are some examples : Remember , there are 25 numbers to pick 15 .

1 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 15 19 20 23 24
4 5 8 9 10 11 13 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 25
1 2 3 7 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 22 23 25
2 4 6 7 9 11 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25
1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 13 15 16 17 18 20 21

These are just 5 draws , we have available 661 , but lets say we have to generate a report with some conclusions .
First case , the numbers seemed well allocated , it skip 4 digits between 15-19 , I would take this into account .
Second case , it starts already skipping the first 4 digits and the last 7 numbers are sequencial , kind of ununsual
Third case , terrible combination , from 7 to 12 it skips 5 digits .
Fourth case , also so against the odds , 11-16 then 16 to 25 .
Fifth case , it has a nice sequence but misses the last 3 digits .

What to do now ?

PS . I´m willing to spend US$10.000 on 10.000 tickets with very well math study combination and if I can get the 15 numbers and win the big prize , whoever helped with this will be rewarded as well .

Would you like me to forward to your email all the 661 combinations allready drawn ?

Again thank you so much for your interest in it .

bobbym · 2011-08-16 02:10:13

Hi engdudu;

We have much to discuss. Before I start let me ask two questions. How are the numbers picked? How many people play this lottery?

gAr · 2011-08-16 02:20:39

Hi engdudu,

What is the cost of a lottery ticket?

engdudu · 2011-08-16 13:08:26

Hi , a single ticket costs US$1,25 .

If you want to take part in this challenge that´d be great , I do believe that 10.000 sets of combination is big enough to get the big prize .

Thanks

gAr · 2011-08-16 15:37:35

Hi engdudu,

bobbym had some questions as well. I too need to know that before starting.

Are you saying when you have all the 15 numbers out of 25, you win $1.7M ?
We still do not know all the rules.

bobbym · 2011-08-16 15:38:35

Hi engdudu;

You did not answer my questions. Also please understand there are serious mathematical objections to what you are attempting. As far as I understand what you are attempting.

engdudu · 2011-08-17 17:36:13

Hello gAr ,

Yes , the prize to get 15 right is around 1.7M , never less than 1 M and the good news is there are two draws per week , mondays and thurdays .

The rules are like any other regular lottery , usually out there you have to hit 6 out of 49 , in this case it´s 15 out of 25 .

If you master ms excel you will be able to work with some pretty good odds , I´m willing to bet on 10.000 tickets , so all we need to do is work together on strategies to select 10.000 sets of combinations .

Feel free to ask me anything .

gAr · 2011-08-17 17:45:29

Hi,

Why 10000 tickets when there are only 25 numbers?
bobbym had some questions as well, why did you ignore that?

engdudu · 2011-08-17 18:13:25

gAr ,

I´m just looking for the sure win by betting with 10.000 tickets , it´s not that simple to hit 15 out of 25 numbers , there are over 3 millions of combinations .

The site´s system has returned my messages to bobby , support has been informed , hope they solve this problem soon , I´m not ignore him at all .

engdudu · 2011-08-17 18:17:05

Hi bobby , this is a test only .

gAr · 2011-08-17 18:24:44

Hi,

Can you choose your numbers youself?
Did you mean there will be repetitions of numbers during the draws?

The site´s system has returned my messages to bobby

I do not understand. Anyone can read the posts. Just type the answers to his questions, that's all.

engdudu · 2011-08-17 18:29:33

Hi Bobby ,

Answering your questions , I have picked a video on youtube so you can watch how the numbers are drawn , it´s simple , it´s just a metal globe with 25 balls in it , one ball is taken out at a time . Note that once a ball is out it does not come back to the globe , instead they put it on a display so everyone can check . Please see youtube.com/watch?v=zOFK3x77JOU

engdudu · 2011-08-17 18:30:34

Continue ,

Second question , each draw raises average US$10-14 Million so if you divide into US$1,25 per ticket , there are like 11 million tickets betting . Last monday , two tickets got 15 numbers right and shared the big prize of US$2.5 Million , then 611 tickets got 14 right taking home US$1500 each , then 21.890 tickets got 13 right to get US$12,50 , then 254.000 tickets got 12 right to get US$5,00 and finally 1.400.000 tickets got 11 right to get US$2,50 . That´s why even if I do not get the 15 right , chances to get some money back are great .

If you want to check my spreadsheet ,with those 600 hundreads combinations taken from all the draws made so far , please just let me know where to send it to . It´s time to discuss strategies to predict new combinations , I do not master ms excel , hope you do.

See you

engdudu · 2011-08-17 18:37:59

gAr , we can choose our numbers or use simulators as well .

There is no repetition , see some examples at post #5 .

By any chance , are you a mathematician or just into math ?

gAr · 2011-08-17 19:46:13

Hi,

Did you mean each ticket will have 15 numbers printed in it, and you strike out as the draws are announced ?

By any chance , are you a mathematician or just into math ?

Neither! Just into lottery. I know that it'll be biased towards the organisers.

I do not master ms excel , hope you do.

I do not use any ms product at all.
There are better softwares to do number churning / number crunching.

bobbym · 2011-08-17 22:32:24

Hi engdudu;

That is what I wanted to mention unless there is a severe bias in the way the balls are drawn it is safe to assume that it is random. New results are completely independent of earlier results. In other words prediction based on what has happened in the past is out.

Biases have been found in Vegas wheels as well as in lotteries.

Post your results right here if you like and I will conduct statistical tests to determine randomness.

Math Is Fun Forum

#1 2011-08-15 13:23:10

All possible combination in probability

#2 2011-08-15 13:35:23

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#3 2011-08-15 17:20:55

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