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#1 2013-01-22 15:48:49

cooljackiec
Member
Registered: 2012-12-13
Posts: 162

Probability!

I have a bag with 5 pennies and 3 nickels. I draw coins out one at a time at random. What is the probability that I haven't removed all 3 nickels after 4 draws?

I tried 1/2 and 11/14. They are wrong


I see you have graph paper.
You must be plotting something
lol

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#2 2013-01-22 16:45:31

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 90,464

Re: Probability!

Hi;


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.

I agree with you regarding the satisfaction and importance of actually computing some numbers. I can't tell you how often I see time and money wasted because someone didn't bother to run the numbers.

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#3 2013-09-05 11:45:44

Anynomous
Guest

Re: Probability!

This solution is not right, i tried it. Can you show how you got it, or something

#4 2013-09-05 12:19:35

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: The Foundation
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 15,657

Re: Probability!

I think he might be right. I am getting 13/14.

(Select[Permutations[{p, p, p, p, p, n, n, n}], Count[Take[#, 4], n] < 3 &] // Length)/(Permutations[{p, p, p, p, p, n, n, n}] // Length)

Last edited by anonimnystefy (2013-09-05 12:20:32)


“Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

“Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most.” ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

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#5 2013-09-05 12:38:43

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 90,464

Re: Probability!

Hi all;

That is all the ways to draw 4 coins from 5 and 3. There are 15 total ways and four winners. So I will have to go with 11 / 15 jist as before. Also, the OP already verified this.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.

I agree with you regarding the satisfaction and importance of actually computing some numbers. I can't tell you how often I see time and money wasted because someone didn't bother to run the numbers.

Online

#6 2013-09-05 12:47:39

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: The Foundation
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 15,657

Re: Probability!

But, the probabilities of those 4-draws are not all the same.


“Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

“Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most.” ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

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#7 2013-09-05 12:58:36

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: The Foundation
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 15,657

Re: Probability!

Here's a simulation that confirms 13/14:

(Table[If[Count[
    Delete[Delete[
      Delete[Delete[{p, p, p, p, p, n, n, n}, RandomInteger[{1, 8}]], 
       RandomInteger[{1, 7}]], RandomInteger[{1, 6}]], 
     RandomInteger[{1, 5}]], n] > 0, 1, 0], {100000}]//Total)/100000//N

“Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

“Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most.” ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

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#8 2013-09-05 13:10:56

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 90,464

Re: Probability!

Hooohaa as the great Al Pacino would say. You have provided some good evidence, I will rethink the whole thing as soon as I come back.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.

I agree with you regarding the satisfaction and importance of actually computing some numbers. I can't tell you how often I see time and money wasted because someone didn't bother to run the numbers.

Online

#9 2013-09-05 13:14:20

anonimnystefy
Real Member
From: The Foundation
Registered: 2011-05-23
Posts: 15,657

Re: Probability!

Okay. See you later.


“Here lies the reader who will never open this book. He is forever dead.

“Taking a new step, uttering a new word, is what people fear most.” ― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Crime and Punishment

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#10 2013-09-05 16:21:59

Fruityloop
Member
Registered: 2009-05-18
Posts: 120

Re: Probability!

I think the answer is 13/14.
(5C4*3C0 + 5C3*3C1 + 5C2*3C2)/8C4 = 13/14.


The eclipses from Algol (an eclipsing binary star) come further apart in time when the Earth is moving away from Algol and closer together in time when the Earth is moving towards Algol, thereby proving that the speed of light is variable and that Einstein's Special Theory of Relativity is wrong.

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#11 2013-09-05 19:01:59

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 90,464

Re: Probability!

Hi;

Yes, that is the correct answer. Verified by the using the hypergeometric distribution.

Thank you spotting that everyone.


In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.

I agree with you regarding the satisfaction and importance of actually computing some numbers. I can't tell you how often I see time and money wasted because someone didn't bother to run the numbers.

Online

#12 2013-09-06 22:10:28

ElainaVW
Member
Registered: 2013-04-29
Posts: 306

Re: Probability!

Hello;

Probability[x < 3, 
 x \[Distributed] HypergeometricDistribution[4, 3, 8]]

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#13 2013-09-06 23:56:05

bobbym
Administrator
From: Bumpkinland
Registered: 2009-04-12
Posts: 90,464

Re: Probability!

For the other M:

Probability(RandomVariable(Hypergeometric(8, 3, 4)) < 3)

In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them.

I agree with you regarding the satisfaction and importance of actually computing some numbers. I can't tell you how often I see time and money wasted because someone didn't bother to run the numbers.

Online

#14 2013-09-07 03:22:04

gAr
Member
Registered: 2011-01-09
Posts: 3,479

Re: Probability!

Maxima:

sum(pdf_hypergeometric(i,3,5,4),i,0,2);

"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense"  - Buddha?

"Data! Data! Data!" he cried impatiently. "I can't make bricks without clay."

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