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#1 2014-10-28 22:24:55

Jeff 23
Guest

Statistics PLEASE!

Somebody please help with this one.  Currently I have a Michael Jordan basketball card that is known to the sports hobby world as being a "POP 1" item.  It is certified and known as an only 1 that exists on the planet.  That's easy for me to calculate so far.  I am then 1 of 'X' amount of 7 billion who owns this.  Now, here is the interesting part.  How, do I calculate my being 1 of 7 billion+ people or more accurately (1 of 7,270,681,700 world population) while adding an even more RARE scenario that this card is known and registered as an only 1 of 23,461,850 in the card grading company's database to exist (of course, again it is POP 1).

NOW, here's the Kicker...there are many POP 1 cards of Michael Jordan (different brands, years, make, etc.) as well and are also registered with this same company.  So they too would have the same answer (outcome as mine).  What sets the card I have apart from theirs is ..on this particular graded item is both of  Jordans jersey #s (that are within the serial #s) along with his rookie year as the REGISTRY NUMBER!!  Others' POP 1 cards are tagged with plain random serials that are non-sequenced w/ no meanings from the serials.  This serial registry to the card I own is 23848445 (Jordan's #23 jersey...highlighted with emphasis next is his ROOKIE Year '84 '84 twice)...then his retirement jersey #45.

Please..help with a step by step on solving this SUUUPER RARE card.  If I can explain this in numbers to the sportscard fans it would mean the world to me.  PLEASE help.  I Greatly Appreciate you! smile -- Jeff

#2 2014-10-29 00:51:50

Bob
Administrator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 10,059

Re: Statistics PLEASE!

hi Jeff 23

Welcome to the forum. 

You have described a whole new world to me.  I just do the math.

Some questions first so that I can get a clear view of the situation.

(1)  Who makes and numbers the cards ?

(2)  How are they distributed to fans ?

(3)  Do you have any control over what player you get or is it random ?

(4) Do you have any control over what number is on the card or it that random ?

(5) Who says there are 23,461,850 cards ? How do they know ?

First thoughts:

Other numbered cards may also have these digits, but in a different order:  eg. 45848423; 23238445; 23458484 etc etc.

Also fans may have numbers that are considered special for other reasons, such as the number of goals he has scored, number of matches etc.

If N cards are sold, each with a unique and sequential number, then the probability of getting one (at random) and it having a particular number, is 1/N

But, even now, there are complications.  Suppose you were wishing to get a special number but no card exists with this number.  Then the probability of getting it is zero.

I suspect there are too many unknowns for an accurate calculation.

I don't think the population of the world has any bearing.  It may come as a shock to you, but many people do not collect the cards.  You would need to restrict your calculation to just the card collectors, and you'd need to know how many such cards there are.  After all, if there were only two collectors, and you had all the available cards between you, then it would be fairly likely that you would be the one with a particular card.

Bob


Children are not defined by school ...........The Fonz
You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei
Sometimes I deliberately make mistakes, just to test you!  …………….Bob smile

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#3 2014-10-29 08:19:39

jeff 23
Member
Registered: 2014-10-29
Posts: 2

Re: Statistics PLEASE!

How nice of you to take the time Bob!

Thank You. 

1) The Upper Deck Company (is renowned and is most credible with making sports cards annually and numbering the cards of all the current players to make a complete set accordingly).  These standard cards are available for purchase to all the sports card collectors. You can purchase these anywhere (like buying a magazine at target and general retail stores).  They can be bought in packs with random surprise of getting the players you want (like buying a misc. bag of starburst with usually the standard flavors/colors...but the strike also known as a "hit" is what I have.  It is called an "insert" (like hitting that super lotto because it is "stamped by them" as 1/1 meaning..not another duplicated.  The card collectors know this.  Upper Deck is most reputable and keeps fans on the edge with trying to get this type of card.  I have that card.  I am one of however many "X" amount of collectors there are in the world.  And since it is not up for sale now, makes it unavailable or even existent to the general public.

2) I submitted this particular card to a card grading service (professionals) you pay a minimal charge called PSA Authenticators.  To this day they have graded
23,461,850 cards and they register this in a database and my card is 1 of those.  And when you enter this registry number (it is attested to as a True Pop 1). 

3) And many cards by the thousands are sent to these Authenticators and randomly authenticate, slab (encase) the cards (making them museum-like pieces and for tamper proof security).  The numbers assigned are once they receive and complete their process (no control).  And for example 23,232,323 (all the jersey numbers is registered as not a Michael Jordan card...in fact it's a football card serial number).  And goes the same for all the numbers you can make 23, 45, and 84 i.e. 23452345, 23234545, 23454523, 23238445 not one of them is registered with Michael Jordan jersey #s or rookie year (the most sought after numbers in collectibles) a) it is what they wore as legends of the game b) the rookie year is what started their journey in putting up Hall of Fame stats.  In other words jersey and rookie years are collected and not serial numbered stats or goals or points.

Thanks so very much for your time.


Jeff

Last edited by jeff 23 (2014-10-29 08:20:03)

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#4 2014-10-29 20:42:30

Bob
Administrator
Registered: 2010-06-20
Posts: 10,059

Re: Statistics PLEASE!

hi jeff 23

Thanks for the information.  I'll start by looking at a simple case.

Suppose there are 10 cards and you have bought 3.  One of the ten is special.  What's the chances of you having it ?  You have three chances out of ten of getting it so the probability of owning the card = 3/10 = 0.3 = 30% 

Now I've done some thinking on this, I don't think it matters who owns the others or even if they are unsold.  Nor does it matter what the world population is; nor how many fans there are.

Note:  You need to know how many cards the company made; not how many the card authenticators have analysed.

So what will you do with it ?  Get it encased and display it ?  Or save it as part of your pension fund ? 

Bob


Children are not defined by school ...........The Fonz
You cannot teach a man anything;  you can only help him find it within himself..........Galileo Galilei
Sometimes I deliberately make mistakes, just to test you!  …………….Bob smile

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#5 2014-11-06 02:01:29

jeff 23
Member
Registered: 2014-10-29
Posts: 2

Re: Statistics PLEASE!

Thanks sooo very much Sir!

I realized I was trying to come up with numbers and equations that weren't needed.  You summarized this just right. 

I plan to simply pass this on to my lil Jr.

Thanks very much for your help smile

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