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#1 Re: This is Cool » The TV show Numb3rs and probability » 2005-12-27 03:43:12
Thank you for your replies. I guess I will have to tell my husband he was right -- actually, I think I will say nothing and just him forget the conversation 
In the U.S., it premiered last week (the week before Christmas) and was on every night at 8pm on NBC. Howie Mandel is the host. I don't know which day/timeslot they plan on putting it when the new episodes start back up. You can go to www.nbc.com/dond/game to try your hand at the online 'practice' version.
To answer 'mathsyperson', I would have sold the case for what the banker offered. But then, I would have sold the case before I got down to 2 cases 
I'm not much of a risk taker.
If I recall correctly, the player did not trade the cases and took the $26k the banker offered. It turned out she had the lower amount in the case she chose at the beginning of the show.
#2 Re: This is Cool » The TV show Numb3rs and probability » 2005-12-23 15:30:54
Can I apply this idea to the new show "Deal or No Deal"?
They start with 26 cases with varying amounts of money inside (from $.01 to $1mil). The player chooses one [lets say #4] to hold. Then randomly opens all cases except the one they chose and another [let's say 23]. There are two dollar amounts left on the board [let's say $200 and $50,000]. At the beginning of the show, there was a 1/26 chance the player chose the case with $50k.
Here's the question: does the player still have a 1/26 chance that they hold $50k? or do they have a 50% chance that they hold $50k? or do they have a 25/26 chance that they hold $50k?
And if the host offers to trade cases with the person, should they give up #4 and take #23 with a better chance that #23 has $50k?
My spouse thinks the answer is a 50% chance that one of the two remaining cases holds $50k, regardless of what went on before. Before searching for this Numb3rs episode, I thought she should trade for a better chance of getting $50k (like the car and goat scenario).
But now I'm not sure -- the player is the only person to choose cases to open so there will not be any cases opened on purpose 
Does that change how the calculation works?
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