Math Is Fun Forum

  Discussion about math, puzzles, games and fun.   Useful symbols: ÷ × ½ √ ∞ ≠ ≤ ≥ ≈ ⇒ ± ∈ Δ θ ∴ ∑ ∫ • π ƒ -¹ ² ³ °

You are not logged in.

#301 Re: Help Me ! » Expectation/Probability problem » 2016-01-17 04:57:56

Hi,

It would actually be -2/37 if you only bet $1 (since you are betting twice), which is about -0.054 and much closer. The change to -0.0679 is due to the conditional $2 bet; since you stake more, expectation goes down.

Specifically, the value of LL drops by about -0.264, while the value of LW rises by about 0.2498

#302 Re: Puzzles and Games » 5 pirate problem. » 2016-01-16 23:52:03

Hi;

Only if the threatener has information and motives such that he would probably benefit from carrying the threat out.

#303 Re: Help Me ! » Bottle with pills » 2016-01-13 03:20:43

Haha smile I should have too; my excuse is that it looked so much like a coding problem that I did not bother to take a deductive approach hmm

Hi phrontister, that is interesting news, good work! My reasoning for my question giving the probability of black running out first goes like this:
If black runs out, that is because there have been enough black pairs to deplete the bottle, and each black pair removes two black pills. Therefore the number of black pairs needed is 218/2, and this is where I get 109 from.
White loses one pill for every not-only-black pair, and gains one for every black pair. This means that 217 + the number of black pairs - the sum of non-black pairs = the number of white pills left. To make that equal zero, the sum of non-black pairs must be 217 greater than the number of black pairs.

Thus the question asks in a more mathematical manner for the chance of the conditions for no black pills being met before those of no white pills

Can you provide an insight into why the black pills are twice as likely to run out first? I still cannot picture it, although I don't have the benefit of having generated games in progress.

incidentally, it is funny you mention clicking speed. I discovered several years ago that I was able to maintain 800cpm for 30secs,  and it is strange to have such a trivial talent xD I do not think there is a confirmed record above 1100cpm,  although nobody would bother about it haha

#304 Re: Help Me ! » Bottle with pills » 2016-01-11 13:52:15

Hi,

Having thought about it, the case of an odd number of black pills to start with will lead to a 100% chance of the last pill being black.
Think about it - as long as more than one black is in the bottle, a white will be added sooner or later. An odd number of black pills can't all be taken out of the bottle. And inevitably, when one black remains, all the whites will then go.

The probabilities of running out first... that just might require coding ability xP

For anyone who might be interested, the problem is:
Beginning with 218 black and 217 white, what is the probability that 109 black pairs will be drawn before the sum of non-black pairs becomes 217 greater than the number of black pairs?
That will give the probability of black running out first.
It appears to me, intuitively, that the probabilities will be somewhat close to 50-50, but I am not confident of that

#305 Re: Help Me ! » Bottle with pills » 2016-01-11 07:55:25

Oh yes, that is clear too isn't it... There will always be exactly 434 draws. Well I suppose that is all wrapped up!

Does anyone want to calculate the probabilities of each colour running out first? Or the case of 217 white and 217 black? Haha

#306 Re: Help Me ! » Bottle with pills » 2016-01-11 01:55:22

Hi anna_gg, I will try to explain what bobbym saw, and I think it will count as a proof that it is white 100%.

First note that a black and white pair and a white pair have the same outcome; one white is removed. Therefore it is only important whether a pair is only black, or not only black.

Since two blacks are removed only when a pair of black pills are drawn, all of the black pills will be gone precisely on the 218/2 = 109th black pair.
All of the whites will be gone when the sum of the black and white pairs and only white pairs is 217 greater than the number of black pairs.

Working out the probabilities of one colour running out first is an interesting problem in its own right, but the question is what colour is the single remaining pill.
Assume that all the whites do run out. Then one white will be added and two blacks subtracted because the next pair will be only blacks. Since it is always two blacks that are subtracted, for this problem the number of black pills must always be even; therefore if there is one pill remaining, it cannot be black.

Furthermore, it is certain that if the game is played long enough, there will eventually remain one white pill. This is because, no matter how many times white runs out, they will just keep replenishing from the extra stock until all the black pills are gone.

#308 Re: Jai Ganesh's Puzzles » Oral puzzles » 2016-01-10 18:05:13

Hi;

I assume you want the discriminant to equal zero:

#309 Re: Maths Is Fun - Suggestions and Comments » Has the Flood Limit been Disabled? » 2016-01-10 17:00:47

101.174.51.176
This is the one that doesn't work

1.129.96.200
This is the one I switch to with my phone's data

#310 Re: Maths Is Fun - Suggestions and Comments » Has the Flood Limit been Disabled? » 2016-01-10 16:21:24

I do not think it is a serious handicap to communication, just as long as people are aware of it (:

I am technically still locked out, but I have unrestricted access simply by changing my network.

#312 Re: Help Me ! » Bottle with pills » 2016-01-10 14:28:50

Hi bobbym,

It is theoretically possible that none of the first 217 pairs are two blacks, in which case all of the whites will be gone. I think this disproves your hypothesis, although the odds are evidently stacked heavily against a final black pill.

The problem seems to be all about the frequency of all-black pairs to non-all-black pairs. There must be very few of the former for the final pill to be black.

#313 Re: Help Me ! » Discrete mathematics » 2016-01-10 08:17:34

I see the simple answer (:

Edit: Never mind, I am done asking silly questions for this morning!

#314 Re: Help Me ! » Discrete mathematics » 2016-01-10 08:11:48

That is extremely cool.

But how did you "generate" the first line?

#315 Dark Discussions at Cafe Infinity » Math is Fun; How about Gambling? » 2016-01-10 07:21:11

Relentless
Replies: 9

The topic here several days ago about the ethics of teaching people to play gambling games got me thinking.

It seems that mathematicians are in the best position to understand the theoretical nature of gambling games. I wonder, then, whether you guys think that there is any positive value in any form of gambling at all, and what your attitude towards it is in general.

Personally I have spent a lot of time with a compulsive gambler, and I think I have gained a lot of insight into the gambling mindset (which is every bit as foolish as people imagine). The old cliche is very true: Most people bet on possibility, not probability.
The lottery is a good example of this. Whenever the odds of the lottery are brought up, I usually hear "You've got to be in it to win it" (to which I usually reply "Yes, and to lose it as well"). But nobody who truly understood their odds, and actually cared about the money, would respond in this way. When I looked into a common form of lottery here, I discovered two key facts:
1. If the jackpot is greater than about $55,000,000 then you have a mathematical edge
2. However, even if you were to buy three tickets every day, it would, on average, take you around 42,000 years to realise that edge.

Can you run a profitable business on the lottery? Absolutely! All you have to do is buy tens of millions of dollars worth of tickets on a high jackpot and hope for the best! (Double or nothing!)

There is a similar story about the card-based version of cra ps. I learned some time ago that, with rigorous study of the art and science of counting cards and abuse of the volatility index, this game can be beaten. All that is required is around 8 hours of intense mental concentration and tracking in order to take advantage of a statistical anomaly that will net you an average profit of 15 cents an hour!

On a more serious note, there have been a handful of very successful businesses exploiting the game of 21. This requires teams and a shared bank, however. The idea is to hit choice locations around the world, be in one venue no longer than 45 minutes, have some guys watching the volatility at tables with good rules and signal to another guy to come in pretending to be a high-roller when the deck is very favourable. This "profession" is infinitely more difficult than it was some decades ago, however.
Besides pokr and acting as the bookie for people to place sports or other bets, the only other financially favourable form I can think of is unpopular raffle tickets - but nobody wants to be looked down on for selling the prizes for a profit, lol


As a final note here, I think the best argument in favour of occasional gambling (besides enjoyment) is the idea of "nonlinear utility". This is the idea that, for example: Just because 100 one-cent coins make up a dollar does not mean having a dollar is worth 100x the amount that having a one-cent coin is worth; it is probably worth at least a million times more because a one-cent coin is practically useless (it doesn't even exist in a lot of countries; it is ignored in shopping transactions)! This concept seems to me to provide a (limited) basis for making bets with a negative expected value - intuitively, you are risking some "spare change" you do not care about for a slight chance of something you would very much care about (much more than the quotient of it and what you're risking would indicate).

Nevertheless, I do not have much of an opinion, and would like to know what you think (:

#316 Re: Maths Is Fun - Suggestions and Comments » Has the Flood Limit been Disabled? » 2016-01-10 04:01:17

The word pokr. I see.
I think I might be locked out, but I can access the forum on my phone (on which I use a relatively unknown browser)

It's a funny bug, lol. It seems that casinno is not a favoured word either

#317 Re: Maths Is Fun - Suggestions and Comments » Has the Flood Limit been Disabled? » 2016-01-10 03:43:09

I am getting the following message when trying to create a topic. If this applies to everybody it is a big problem. It is not forum-specific:

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /post.php on this server.

Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

#321 Re: Jai Ganesh's Puzzles » Oral puzzles » 2016-01-09 23:49:17

I think I have learned how to do it smile

#322 Re: Jai Ganesh's Puzzles » Oral puzzles » 2016-01-09 22:05:34

Hi;

Is 0x^2 + 0x + 0 a quadratic equation? Hahaha tongue

#323 Re: This is Cool » Fun with 0 / 0 » 2016-01-09 18:31:36

0^0 is equivalent to 0/0, as far as I know. Both of them, especially 0^0, have strong arguments for being 1. Unfortunately, they both have solid arguments for being 0 as well. Several people have mentioned recently that it is useful to assume 0^0 = 1 for the purpose of many formulas (in fact, I saw this just yesterday when deriving the Kelly formula). That is what bobbym is referring to.

#324 Re: Help Me ! » Word Problem » 2016-01-09 15:51:27

Hello;

I have made an attempt! The result might be slightly too ugly to be correct, but even if it is not, I enjoyed the problem.

The only disclaimer is that we are not told explicitly which side lengths of the body are the width, height and length; but from plain common sense, and also from the face that would include the head, hopefully we may deduce it and my logic is correct.

Board footer

Powered by FluxBB