1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

LQ · 2009-08-27 03:04:13

consider 0.1/y the rate at wich the black dots on the sun epicentre: we have;
a storm, vsum = 0. So what is the chance for an erruption, well if 2 with opposite momentum meet, the chance for this would be like chance, and so is the vektor

but if the vektor is a function of 10% for it to appear at all, what is the chance for it to appear at all twice in the same vincinity?

we have that for it to appear twice at the same time, 10 out of 10 percent, that is to say 1%, but then it can spin in 2 different directions, either they spin the opposite way and dissrupt, or they don't.

now, here's the brain teaser: if for a massive object a big thing happens, wouldn't the other big thing happen at the same place by chance?
The answer might be most likely, since it actually allready happened at that place, there is the chance for double or opposite directions on both.

so basically we have, for both being opposite, 1/2 chance it happens every 100 years, that is to say, next time it will happen will be 2059 and not 2012; 200 years from 1859.

But then again it can come to happen somewhere else I guess, so that begs the question, can someone else solve this by logic?

Ricky · 2009-08-27 03:37:56

Are you trying to predict the year that something will occur based on knowing it's percentage of chance of occurring?

LQ · 2009-08-27 05:27:59

well no, it's a 100% predictable chance, since it does come every tenth year, more rather a random year has 10% chance.

so basically, a sunspot maximum is every 10 years, hum, long time I read about this, but I believe that it is every tenth year. so basically there's a huge hole where it is, vector wise. I don't know how big, but if a new spot want to form, it is bound to form right ontop of another one, since that's the most likely event, I explain it like this. If it would happen that a sunspot form, just like every tenth year one form, one would form on top of another every 200, it's a static system, In other words it has few weaknessess. You wouldn't see a hole form in a solid diamond here on earth, in the same way if you empty your bathtub, the hole is the most likely suspect. that's the analogy

the bathtub flush through the hole, and the solarwind eminates when the hole in the sun's vektorsum 0 spot, simply dies. dissrupts, goes away. That happens if 2 sundots are created one within the other without having the same direction.

When would that happen? Well obviously, it would be fully determinable, because it would have an interval. Now I'm not saying that 2059 is special, because why would it? But there is a small percentage that it is, for instance, when was the last supermega storm? was it 1859 or perhaps what started the last ice age? because imagine that the time for a supermega storm happens on a year with many factors we call sunspot elipses, then well, we have 10 since last superstorm... and the chance of 2 happening at the same spot if 1 is likely to happen every 10th year, would still, given probability (and the apple seldomly falls far from the tree) be 0.10^2

so every other time this happens, the inner wind is bound to have the opposite direction.

10*20*10*20, every 4000 years, there will be a quadruple storm. And it hasn't been the last 2000 years, have it?
It would be a massive event, some major disaster that would be well written about from the antique or egypts.
when did the ancient kingdom of rome fall? about 4000 years ago?

Last edited by LQ (2009-08-27 06:38:59)

Ricky · 2009-08-27 05:53:37

so basically there's a huge hole where it is, vector wise.

Please define "vector", as I am not familiar with your usage of that word.

You wouldn't see a hole form in a solid diamond here on earth, in the same way if you empty your bathtub, the hole is the most likely suspect. that's the analogy

I think your argument is, "It happened their once, so that's the most likely spot for it to happen, and therefore it will happen their again." I won't pretend to know the dynamics of sunspot creation, but you really shouldn't either. It's a complex system with many variables which is not yet fully understood. Your attempt at an analogy ain't alright. All alliteration aside, it falls way short.

the bathtub flush through the hole...

I'm going to guess that this is a metaphorical bathtub. A metaphorical bathtub that flushes. Did you mean a toilet?

...and the solarwind eminates when...

By "emanates", did you mean to suggest that this is what causes the solar wind?

That happens if 2 solarwinds are created one within the other without having the same direction.

Did you mean that two solar winds come together to form one?

Your ideas here are incomprehensible. I'm trying, and I mean really trying, but it's impossible to figure out what it is you're trying to say.

LQ · 2009-08-27 06:46:48

just like when you flush the bathtub, a sundot can form on top of another. If it has opposite direction I believe the void of wind is filled with the chaos of the sun and release a solar wind.

moreover I believe that when a solar spot is created within another, with opposite direction, that a solarwind is formed.

I believe these solarwinds form, once every 242 years. because that's the time and place of 2 totally predictable solarspot massings that are formed on top of eachother. In no way am I certain of this.

But I believe so because 11 years for one to form (the solar spot periods), and 22 for an opposite to form on top of it.
so basically that's in 2101 if one was 1859
1859 + 121 = 1980, I don't know if anything happened back then, but that should be a double wind if this was correct.

Last edited by LQ (2009-08-27 07:30:35)

Ricky · 2009-08-27 07:20:42

just like when you flush the bathtub, a sundot can form on top of another.

I assume you mean sunspot, but how is that at all like letting water drain from a bathtub?

If it has opposite direction I believe the void of wind is filled with the chaos of the sun and release a solar wind.

Ok, so now sunspots have a direction. I assume your are talking about the "wind up" phenomenon? And somehow the solar wind is affected by sunspots?

moreover I believe that when a solar spot is created within another, with opposite direction, that a solarwind is formed.

There is no evidence to suggest that solar wind is correlated with sunspots, and because of all the measurements of the sun we do, if it was, we would have found it by now.

LQ · 2009-08-27 07:24:10

Isn't super solar winds a really rare phenomenon?

Ricky · 2009-08-27 08:34:32

From what I can tell, there is no phenomena called "super solar winds".

bobbym · 2009-08-27 09:42:26

Hi LQ;

Ricky wrote:

There is no evidence to suggest that solar wind is correlated with sunspots, and because of all the measurements of the sun we do, if it was, we would have found it by now.

I agree, from what is known there is no reason to believe that sunspots affect the solar wind except in the vicinity of the resulting solar flare. Solar wind is the million mile an hour ejection of plasma (ionized gas ) from the sun. It radiates in all directions, continuously. Sunspots do occur in cycles of 11 years not 10. There also was a so called Maunder minimum in the 1600's - 1700's where very few sunspots were observed.

There is a nice chart of sunspot activity for the last 11000 years:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sunsp … _years.svg

LQ wrote:

so basically we have, for both being opposite, 1/2 chance it happens every 100 years, that is to say, next time it will happen will be 2059 and not 2012; 200 years from 1859.

Since you picked that date(2012) are you thinking of the mayan calendar predictions?

Last edited by bobbym (2009-08-27 12:18:22)

Tigeree · 2009-08-27 18:15:32

My predictions come naturally. Anyway, I'd trust the mayan calendar it's seems to be mostly accurate.

Math Is Fun Forum

#1 2009-08-27 03:04:13

1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#2 2009-08-27 03:37:56

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#3 2009-08-27 05:27:59

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#4 2009-08-27 05:53:37

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#5 2009-08-27 06:46:48

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#6 2009-08-27 07:20:42

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#7 2009-08-27 07:24:10

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#8 2009-08-27 08:34:32

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#9 2009-08-27 09:42:26

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

#10 2009-08-27 18:15:32

Re: 1859 solar eruption, but when will it happen again...

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