binomial standard deviation in french roulette

ybot · 2012-12-30 07:59:22

4sd has a lower probabily but I often have 3sd at 1000 o 2000 and after 1000 to 3000 more trials we get 4sd.
The cause we could input to smart predictions

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:05:20

It is possible to go up with a bigger sample size like 4000.

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:06:37

Why not?

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:09:56

It is possible to go up to outside 4 sd or more with a bigger sample.

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:14:07

It is very unlikely but isn't impossible.
Supose I know things that other people don't.

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:20:42

Hi;

All I am saying is that it is possible to get closer to the average or further away from it. I am not making any other comment.

Of course you can have a sample that is 1 standard deviation away from the average with 1000 spins and 3 standard deviations away with 2000 spins. That could happen.

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:27:34

What about 4 st dev in 2000?

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:30:10

Sure, it can go to anything. What is it you want to know?

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:34:16

These events are phisics related.
The sd number will rise, is where you realise that you are facing a non-random event.

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:38:46

That is not exactly how it works. As I said as the sample size goes up the sd goes up. That is normal. Whether or not it is outside of 3 or 4 standard deviations is what counts.

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:43:58

There is where I don't catch the relations.

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:46:48

The standard deviation is not what is important, what is important is how far your result is from the average. In your case 44 is more than 3 sd from the average (27) that means it only has 1 chance in 380 of being a random event. But that is not 0.

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:52:50

In addition to be far 3 or 4 sd from the average we must beat the house edge(he) first(2,7%) and get some extra % of profit.
To achieve it we need to be further from the average.

bobbym · 2012-12-30 08:54:56

That has nothing to do with what we are talking about right now. That is a separate question.

We are talking about standard deviation and I presume randomness.

ybot · 2012-12-30 08:57:05

The conection between them makes hard to undestand what we witness

bobbym · 2012-12-30 09:00:26

Not really. Based on the single sample you gave me of 44 out of 1000 hits with a probability of 1 / 37 I have answered the question. There is a only a 1 in 380 chance that that occurred by chance. Whether you feel that is enough is up to you. As I said it is not impossible that wheel is okay, just unlikely.

ybot · 2012-12-30 09:11:13

What about 48/1000?

Sometimes it happens that you have 38/1000(2sd), then you have 73/2000(2.5sd), 108/3000(3sd) and 149/4000(4sd). It rises.

149/4000 means an "hipotetic" +34% edge
48/1000(4sd) looks stronger with its +72.8%

Both %s are not actually true. I want to know how it works

bobbym · 2012-12-30 09:21:03

What about 48/1000?

That would be more than 4 sd away from the average. The chance that could happen by chance is about 1 / 15780. Quite rare.

48/1000(4sd) looks stronger with its +72.8%

You cannot yet assume that the sample mean is the actual average.

ybot · 2012-12-30 09:25:23

Quite rare for random events, widespread for non-random facts.

27/1000 is the average, no doubt.
48/1000 is possible
Supose you find a bigger pocket

bobbym · 2012-12-30 09:32:16

Because the sample size is larger than 30, in this case it is 1000, I would say we can expect that the true mean of that number to be 6/125 rather than 1 / 37.

ybot · 2012-12-30 09:44:05

1/20.83?(6/125) Why?

What is the difference between 1/20.83 or 48/1000?

We use to have more than 30.

bobbym · 2012-12-30 09:49:34

What is the difference between 1/20.83 or 48/1000?

No difference, except usually you do not use decimals.

ybot · 2012-12-30 09:55:03

I undestand why you as yourself and think I'm mad.
I work with non-random events daily.

bobbym · 2012-12-30 09:56:54

No I do not. I was a [deleted].

ybot · 2012-12-30 10:03:29

So, as a [deleted], playing the basic strategy you would be able to be +1,5% over the HE.
And, as a [deleted] you could have a range of advantage over other regular players.
How do you know when you have the edge and how much?
At a moment in the year/month/decade you can say that you have (for example) 5% edge over any other player or the house. How would you gauge it?

Math Is Fun Forum

#26 2012-12-30 07:59:22

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#27 2012-12-30 08:05:20

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#28 2012-12-30 08:06:37

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#29 2012-12-30 08:09:56

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#30 2012-12-30 08:14:07

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#31 2012-12-30 08:20:42

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#32 2012-12-30 08:27:34

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#33 2012-12-30 08:30:10

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#34 2012-12-30 08:34:16

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#35 2012-12-30 08:38:46

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#36 2012-12-30 08:43:58

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#37 2012-12-30 08:46:48

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#38 2012-12-30 08:52:50

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#39 2012-12-30 08:54:56

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#40 2012-12-30 08:57:05

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#41 2012-12-30 09:00:26

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#42 2012-12-30 09:11:13

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#43 2012-12-30 09:21:03

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#44 2012-12-30 09:25:23

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#45 2012-12-30 09:32:16

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#46 2012-12-30 09:44:05

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#47 2012-12-30 09:49:34

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#48 2012-12-30 09:55:03

Re: binomial standard deviation in french roulette

#49 2012-12-30 09:56:54

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#50 2012-12-30 10:03:29

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