Math Is Fun Forum

EMPhillips1989

Member

Registered: 2008-01-21

Posts: 40

probability

does anyone know how i would answer a question like the following?

Let X be the outcome when a fair die is rolled once. Before the die is rolled you are offered either a guarenteed amount:

  pounds
or a gamble of

what is the best strategy to accept the guaranteed amount or gamble?

Last edited by EMPhillips1989 (2008-02-14 04:16:55)

David Miller

Guest

Re: probability

what
Put it in diffrent words?

mathsyperson

Moderator

Registered: 2005-06-22

Posts: 4,900

Re: probability

You need to find the amount that you would expect to win if you gambled (so, the average win if you played lots and lots of times).

Rolling a 1 gets you 1/1 pounds, rolling a two gets you 1/2, and so on.
With 6 trials, you would expect to throw each value once, and so the amount you would expect to win is:

This works out to be 49/120 = 0.408..., or roughly 41p.
The safe amount converts to roughly 43p, which means it's the slightly better option.

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Why did the vector cross the road?
It wanted to be normal.